AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) Slides 11.62% as Space Sector Faces SpaceX IPO Headwinds

AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) fell 11.62% on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, closing at $72.96, as space-sector stocks came under pressure on speculation that a SpaceX IPO could reshape investor appetite for smaller competitors. The decline occurred despite B. Riley Securities maintaining its Neutral rating and raising its price target to $85.

By the Numbers

• Stock declined 11.62% on Tuesday, May 12, from $82.55 to $72.96 per share
• B. Riley Securities price target: $85 (implies 16.6% upside from Tuesday's close)
• Revenue growth of 19.52% (TTM) shows strong top-line acceleration
• Operating margin of -10.14% (TTM) reflects pre-profitability stage typical of early-stage space ventures

Why It Matters

According to Rocket Lab CFO commentary cited in Benzinga, a SpaceX IPO could force smaller space-technology stocks "into obscurity" by concentrating investor capital and attention on the dominant player. AST SpaceMobile, which aims to provide direct-to-device satellite communications via its BlueWalker 3 constellation, faces an existential competitive and capital-allocation risk if SpaceX goes public and captures the sector's growth narrative.

The stock's 19.5% revenue growth indicates AST is scaling its business, yet the company remains deeply unprofitable with -10.14% operating margins. This positions ASTS as a pure execution story: it must reach profitability before cash runs low, all while competing for investor dollars against a better-capitalized SpaceX. Tuesday's 11.62% slide reflects this structural vulnerability.

B. Riley's maintained Neutral stance and price-target raise to $85 suggests the analyst sees value at current levels but lacks conviction that the company will survive independent competition. The $85 target represents modest upside, not enthusiasm.

Investor Takeaway

AST SpaceMobile is now a high-risk, high-reward play tethered to SpaceX's IPO timeline. If SpaceX goes public and dominates the narrative, ASTS will likely face further capital constraints. Conversely, if the SpaceX IPO is delayed or smaller than expected, investor money may flow to alternative space-tech plays. Current shareholders should monitor cash burn, partnership announcements, and any revenue-driving milestones from the BlueWalker constellation. New buyers should demand a margin-expansion roadmap before committing capital.