Morgan Stanley Projects SpaceX Revenue at $3.4 Trillion by 2040 (NYSE: MS)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) published a note projecting that SpaceX could generate $3.4 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in adjusted EBITDA by 2040, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter. The projections were released as SpaceX began meeting with investors on Thursday in its IPO roadshow. MS shares last traded at $215.82 on Friday, June 5.

SpaceX Revenue Projections

• $3.4 trillion: Morgan Stanley's projected SpaceX revenue figure for 2040, per the WSJ report
• $2.7 trillion: Projected adjusted EBITDA for SpaceX by 2040, as cited in Morgan Stanley's note
• 182-fold: The implied scale of revenue growth Morgan Stanley envisions for SpaceX by 2040
• AI revenue: Morgan Stanley identified SpaceX's AI business as a primary driver of the projected growth over the coming years, according to the WSJ
• IPO roadshow: SpaceX began investor meetings Thursday, the context in which Morgan Stanley's note circulated

Why It Matters

Morgan Stanley's projection places SpaceX's potential 2040 revenue at a scale that would rival the largest corporations in the world today. The bank's note specifically highlighted AI-related revenue as the engine behind the long-range forecast, signaling that Morgan Stanley views SpaceX not solely as a launch and satellite business but as a participant in the broader AI infrastructure opportunity.

The timing of the note — coinciding with SpaceX's IPO roadshow — positions Morgan Stanley as a key voice shaping institutional expectations ahead of what could be a landmark public offering. While the 2040 projections are long-range in nature, they reflect the analytical framework Morgan Stanley is using to help investors contextualize SpaceX's valuation at the outset of its roadshow process.

Wall Street View

Analyst consensus on Morgan Stanley itself remains constructive. As of June 1, 2026, the breakdown stood at 8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, and 14 Hold recommendations, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings — a slight tightening from the prior month's 15 Hold count. The shift suggests a modest drift toward higher conviction among covering analysts, though specific price target figures are not available.

Investor Takeaway

Morgan Stanley's SpaceX revenue projection of $3.4 trillion by 2040 — anchored to AI business growth — places the bank at the center of what could be one of the most closely watched IPO processes in recent memory. For MS investors, the note reinforces the firm's role as a leading advisor and analyst on high-profile capital markets events. The projection carries inherent uncertainty given its 15-year horizon, but the specificity of the figures — particularly the $2.7 trillion adjusted EBITDA estimate — signals a detailed analytical commitment from the bank's research team.