Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) Raises Full-Year Capex to $1.55B Midpoint After Côte d'Ivoire Oil Discovery

Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) disclosed a substantial expansion of its 2026 capital program following a confirmed oil discovery offshore Côte d'Ivoire, raising its full-year capital expenditure midpoint from $1.25 billion to $1.55 billion. The company also reported Q2 2026 revenue of $926.3 million, up 33.2% year over year, alongside net income attributable to Murphy of $232.2 million, compared to $22 million in Q2 2025. Shares fell -6.10% on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, while the S&P 500 declined 0.20%.

Q2 2026 Operating and Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $926.3 million in Q2 2026, up 33.2% year over year
• Net income: $232.2 million ($1.59 diluted GAAP EPS), versus $22 million in Q2 2025
• Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP): $1.55 per diluted share; adjusted net income of $225.8 million
• Total production: 168,995 BOEPD, at the upper end of quarterly guidance, with oil production of 85,265 BOPD
• Adjusted EBITDA: $592.7 million; free cash flow of $110.0 million
• Capital expenditures: $476.0 million in Q2 2026; full-year 2026 guidance range raised to $1.50 billion to $1.60 billion
• Liquidity: approximately $2.48 billion as of June 30, 2026, comprising a $2.00 billion undrawn credit facility and approximately $480 million in cash

What Drove the Results

Murphy's Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55 came in 2.2% below analyst consensus estimates, while revenue of $926.3 million exceeded the Wall Street consensus by 6.58%. Production reached the upper end of guidance primarily due to continued performance at Tupper Montney in Canada, where an eight-well pad came online subsequent to quarter end. Onshore operations produced approximately 103,800 BOEPD, and offshore operations (excluding noncontrolling interest) contributed approximately 65,000 BOEPD with 88% liquids.

The Bubale-1X exploration well in Block CI-709 offshore Côte d'Ivoire encountered 100 feet of net pay across two reservoirs, representing a new oil discovery. Subsequent to the quarter, Murphy spud the Bubale West-1X appraisal well in adjacent Block CI-103. The Lac Da Vang development project in Vietnam completed pipeline installation and launched its Floating Storage and Offloading vessel during Q2, with topsides installed and the FSO mobilized to its final location after quarter end; first oil remains on track for Q4 2026. In the Gulf of America, Murphy completed drilling and initiated completion activities at the Chinook #8 well, expected to come online in Q4 2026 at a gross initial production rate of approximately 15,000 BOEPD.

The company also concluded the Hai Su Vang appraisal program in Vietnam, expensing the Hai Su Vang-4X well as a dry hole during Q2.

Why It Matters

The decision to increase the full-year capex midpoint by $300 million reflects Murphy's commitment to advancing multiple development and appraisal opportunities simultaneously, including Bubale, Lac Da Vang, and Chinook. Full-year 2026 exploration expense guidance stands at $300 million, which includes $80 million of dry hole expense already booked in the first half and an assumed $100 million of dry hole expense in the second half. For Q3 2026, Murphy guided total net production (excluding noncontrolling interest) of 171,000 to 179,000 BOEPD, with capital expenditures in the range of $380 million to $460 million.

Shareholder returns in Q2 included $50 million in quarterly dividends. Murphy did not repurchase shares in the quarter but retains $550 million under its existing share repurchase authorization. Total debt stood at $1.55 billion as of June 30, 2026, comprising long-term fixed-rate notes with a weighted average maturity of 8.7 years and a weighted average coupon of 6.3%.

Investor Takeaway

Murphy enters the second half of 2026 with three material near-term catalysts converging: first oil at Lac Da Vang in Q4, the Chinook #8 well coming online in Q4, and an active appraisal program in Côte d'Ivoire following the Bubale-1X discovery. The stepped-up capex program, while pressuring near-term free cash flow of $110.0 million in Q2, is directed at projects with defined production timelines rather than speculative exploration, which distinguishes the spending increase from a pure exploration bet. Investors will likely focus on whether Lac Da Vang and Chinook #8 deliver on their Q4 production timelines as the primary test of whether the enlarged capital program translates into volume growth.